With a commanding lead among men, Ohio Gov. John Kasich leads likely Democratic challengers in an early look at the 2014 governor’s race, 46 – 37 percent over Cuyahoga County Executive Ed Fitzgerald and 45 – 38 percent over U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday.
The Republican governor’s margins remain virtually unchanged from the results of a February 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In the survey, Gov. Kasich leads Fitzgerald 51 – 32 percent among men, while women are divided 41 – 41 percent. Kasich tops Cordray 52 – 34 percent among men, while women go 43 percent for Cordray and 39 percent for the incumbent.
“In a state where self-described Democrats outnumber Republicans 35 – 27 percent, Kasich seems to be in reasonably good shape as he looks ahead to the 2014 gubernatorial election,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “The fact that he leads his two potential Democratic opponents by 20 and 17 points respectively among the key independent voting bloc is a good indication that he starts the campaign with the voting public seeing him positively.
“There is a large gender gap in the Ohio electorate when it comes to Kasich’s reelection. The gender gap is a factor in virtually all political campaigns these days, but its size at this point in this race seems a bit larger than normal.”
Ohio voters approve 52 – 34 percent of the job Kasich is doing and give him a 46 – 29 percent favorability rating.
For Cordray, 66 percent of voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion. For Fitzgerald, 76 percent don’t know enough.
“These numbers indicate that County Executive Ed Fitzgerald and Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray are not well-known to voters,” Brown added. “Should they undertake the race, they will need to define themselves positively in the eyes of the mass of voters who don’t yet have an opinion about either man,
“One bad sign for Kasich is that he does not hit 50 percent in the reelection matchups or in the general question of whether he deserves reelection.”
Kasich deserves reelection, Ohio voters say 46 – 37 percent, including 51 – 35 percent among independent voters.
In the Fitzgerald-Kasich matchup, the governor leads 86 – 2 percent among Republicans and 48 – 28 percent among independent voters, while Democrats go to Fitzgerald 77 – 10 percent. Against Cordray, Kasich leads 88 – 4 percent among Republicans and 47 – 30 percent among independent voters, while losing Democrats 78 – 9 percent.
In each race, independent voters provide the governor’s winning margin.
Kasich seems to have something of a moderate ideological image: 26 percent say he is too conservative, while 10 percent say he is too liberal and 47 percent say he is “about right.”
Views of the less-known Fitzgerald and Cordray are unformed, as about half of voters in each case say they can’t place them on the ideological scale.
Voters are split 24 – 26 percent on whether Fitzgerald has the right experience to be governor. Cordray has the right experience, voters say 31 – 27 percent.
Underpinning Kasich’s early strength is a generally positive review from voters about his handling of the economy, 49 – 41 percent approval. A total of 38 percent of voters rate Ohio’s economy as “excellent” or “good,” the highest scores ever. Another 60 percent say the economy is “not so good” or “poor.”
From April 10 – 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,138 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.
To view all the numbers from this poll. click here.
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