The apparent tie in the Rob Portman-Ted Strickland race for U.S. Senate, which took hold in summer after Strickland had the lead, continues today, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.
If the election were today, Democratic challenger Strickland would have 46 percent of Ohio voters’ support and Portman, the incumbent Republican, would have 43 percent.
In a real election, that would make Strickland the winner. He has held onto a lead in polls conducted by Quinnipiac through the year, although the lead narrowed to a statistical tie in August.
In this latest telephone poll, with 1,180 registered voters who are supposed to serve as a proxy for Ohio’s political druthers, the numbers continue to leave enough doubt as to necessitate factoring in what statisticians call a margin of error. And the margin of error in this poll is 2.9 percent, about matching Strickland’s narrow lead.
There is enough doubt, in other word, that Portman could just as easily be ahead. That was the outcome in Quinnipiac’s August survey as well.
For Strickland, a former Ohio governor, the good news is that Portman has not pulled ahead despite advertising against him or for Portman by outside groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Koch brothers’ Americans for Prosperity, and a group affiliated with conservative strategist Karl Rove.
For Portman, the good news is that the horse race continues to be a statistical tie, suggesting that the ads and other efforts slowed Strickland’s early momentum.
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