Poll shows Trump narrowly leading Clinton in Ohio

In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released Monday.

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders’ split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.

The presidential matchups show:

• Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
• Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;
• Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.

“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”

“This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump,” Brown added. “In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.”

“Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided.

“By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards.”

The gender and racial gaps are wide in Ohio, where Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent. He leads 51 – 36 percent among men, while she takes women 43 – 36 percent. White voters go Republican 49 – 32 percent, as non-white voters vote Democratic 76 – 14 percent.

The age gap narrows as voters 18 to 34 years old go 43 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton.

Independent voters go 40 percent for Trump and 37 percent for Clinton.

Clinton gets a negative 34 – 62 percent favorability, compared to Trump’s negative 36 – 57 percent.

Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, Ohio voters say 52 – 40 percent. He also would be better on terrorism, voters say 48 – 43 percent.

Ohio voters say 47 – 39 percent Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by a narrow 43 – 39 percent that she has higher moral standards.

Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Ohio voters say 51 – 46 percent, while Trump does not, voters say 63 – 29 percent.

Voters support 75 – 22 percent requiring voters to show photo ID. Democrats are divided with 50 percent in favor of photo ID and 48 percent opposed.

Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 54 percent of voters say, while 9 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 31 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S.

Ohio voters oppose 52 – 45 percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 50 percent want a wall, with 46 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed 79 – 19 percent.

“Ohioans oppose ‘The Wall’ 52 – 45 percent, while they are overwhelmingly in favor of requiring a photo ID for anyone wanting to vote,” Brown said. “They are happy with the economy and satisfied with the way things are going in the state – all of which is a nice testament to Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out of the White House race last week, but might be back as Trump’s running mate.”

Click here for all of the details of this poll.