A new poll of likely voters shows Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown leading Republican challenger Josh Mandel by double digits in Ohio's closely watched U.S. Senate race. Even so, Brown and Mandel agree on one thing — that the race will be closer than it appears today.
If the November election were held today, 51 percent would vote to re-elect Brown to a second term, according to the survey released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Conn., CBS News and the New York Times.
Mandel, Ohio's state treasurer, was favored by 39 percent of 1,193 likely voters questioned.
That puts Brown, of Avon, above the all-important 50 percent threshold and stakes him to a 12 percentage point advantage over Mandel, of Beachwood. But more than three months of campaigning remain, and both candidates and their big-spending allies already are hammering each other with an airwave blitz certain to intensify after Labor Day.
Brown leads Mandel among independent voters, 49 percent to 38 percent, according to the poll. Women favor Brown by a 55 percent to 34 percent margin, while among men Brown has a statistically inconsequential 1 point edge.
Broken out on party, 88 percent of Democrats prefer Brown, 82 percent of Republicans back Mandel.
Conducted between July 24 and Monday, the poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
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