Ohio’s projected “tight budget” for the next two years got a little tighter Wednesday.
Ohio Budget Director Tim Keen told lawmakers on Wednesday he will likely lower revenue projections for the 2018-2019 budget. Ohio tax revenues fell about 33 percent short of projections in March, fueled by yet another month of sluggish income tax payments.
Income tax revenue estimates were revised downward in July, but revenues have failed to meet the mark every month since. In March, the state collected $442.6 million in personal income tax — about $95 million less than expected.
Total income tax collections for the fiscal year ending in June are about $448 million short, according to the preliminary monthly revenue report released Wednesday.
Keen said the state will finish this year within .05 percent of what’s needed, in part because of underspending in the Medicaid program and more moderate spending on debt service.
Keen told the Senate Finance Committee revenue forecasts have become “more than somewhat worse” since Gov. John Kasich introduced his two-year state budget proposal in January despite better economic conditions. That budget anticipated a $592 million shortfall, Keen said, and he doesn’t expect the trend to reverse for the next two years.
Total state tax receipts for the fiscal year ending in June are about $615 million, or 4 percent, short of estimates. Sales tax revenue, the state’s prime revenue generator, came in about 5 percent less than estimated in March and about 2 percent over estimates for the current fiscal year.
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